by TINTSWALO BALOYI
JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – WITH all elections held in the continent this year producing disputed outcomes, the spotlight shifts to Guinea-Bissau, the unstable West African country that is one of the world’s poorest.
It was once hailed as a potential model for African development.
In power since 2020, incumbent Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló (53), a political scientist and military officer, who was prime minister between November 2016 and January 2018, seeks re-election.
He succeeded José “Jomav” Mário Vaz, the only president of Guinea-Bissau post- independence to finish his five-year term.
Ahead of the November 23 elections, drama and controversy are prevailing in the country of 2,2 million people, bordering the more prominent Guinea and Senegal.
In September 2024, Embaló initially announced he would not seek a second term.
During that time, disputes arose over when his term as president would end, as opposition groups said his term expired on February 27, 2025.
The Supreme Court ruled that it expires on September 4, 2025, at the helm of the former Portuguese colony independent since 1974.
Embaló changed his mind and in March this year, announced he would run again for president, under the ticket of the Movement for Democratic Alternation (Madem-G15), founded in 2018 as a splinter from the African Party for the Independence of Guinea (PAIGC).
Embaló has since continued to hold the presidency following the legal expiry of his term on September 4, two months ago.
In March 2024, he visited Jerusalem and expressed support for Israel in the Gaza war.
“Guinea-Bissau and its people are at your side and ready to help you in any way possible,” he assured Israeli President, Isaac Herzog.
This is in opposition to the stance largely taken by Sub-Sharan Africa and the principle of non-alignment espoused by the continent.
On a positive note, under Embaló’s presidency, Guinea-Bissau masterminded peace on the Casamance conflict in Senegal in February 2025.
He defines his governing style as “Embaloism”, anchored on “order, discipline and development.”
“There is neither a small state nor a small president,” he has said.
He compares himself to the late Singaporean prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, and Rodrigo Duterte, the erstwhile president of the Philippines.
Thus, while his country was formerly a Portuguese territory, Embaló is a devotee of Southeast Asia.
Polls were initially planned to be separate parliamentary and presidential elections, with parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2024 after Embaló dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament in December 2023, alleging an “attempted coup” had prevented him from returning home from COP28 climate conference.
Opposition have denounced Embaló as an authoritarianism bent on establishing a dictatorship.
In September, the Supreme Court disqualified the opposition Pai Terra Ranka coalition from contesting the election after it had failed to submit a list of candidates 72 hours before the deadline of candidate registration on the 25th.
In October, the same court disqualified former Prime Minister and Speaker of the National People’s Assembly, Domingos Simões Pereira, who had returned from a nine-month exile, from running.
The upcoming poll therefore will be the first election since independence in which the PAIGC is not represented, pending rumors of Pereira reconciliation with the incumbent Embaló.
The United Nations Human Rights Commission has expressed worry over the numerous allegations of intimidation, harassment and, in some cases, arbitrary arrests and detentions of human rights and environmental defenders, journalists and trade union members in Guinea-Bissau.
“It is crucial that independent voices be protected,” said spokesperson Liz Throssell.
“All human rights and environmental defenders and civil society representatives, including those critical of the authorities, must be able to express their views and undertake their legitimate activities without fear of retaliation or reprisal on that account.”
Guinea-Bissau is one of four Guineas in the world, alongside Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Conakry and Papua New Guinea.
Three are in Africa and Papua New Guinea is in Oceania.
In Africa, vote rigging allegations have overshadowed polls held in October in Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Tanzania, where incumbents have retained power. In Madagascar, the military has overthrown Andry Nirina Rajoelina.
– CAJ News