from MELUSI MHLANGA in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe Bureau
BULAWAYO, (CAJ News) – DESPITE claims by Finance Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube that the majority of Zimbabweans have achieved middle-income status, evidence on the ground paints a starkly different picture.
Unemployment is rampant, industries remain largely shut down, hospitals are without essential medicine, and basic services continue to collapse — realities that sharply contradict government narratives.
Addressing delegates at the 2026 Pre-Budget Seminar in Bulawayo, Prof Ncube stated that Zimbabweans are spending an average of US$9 per day and that the country is on track to achieve its Vision 2030 goal of upper middle-income status under the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1).
He touted a 5.6 percent average gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2021 and 2025 and highlighted investments in infrastructure, roads, dams, and energy projects.
But critics say these claims are part of a carefully constructed narrative aimed at projecting economic competence while concealing the harsh realities faced by the majority.
Independent analysts point out that Zimbabwe’s formal unemployment rate is estimated at over 95 percent, while public hospitals and clinics are chronically understocked with medicines.
Power outages and fuel shortages have crippled productivity, and inflation remains among the highest in the world, eroding any meaningful purchasing power.
“The notion that Zimbabweans are middle-income is laughable,” said economist Ms. Thandeka Sibanda.
“Even if one spends US$9 a day, it doesn’t reflect disposable income or economic empowerment. Most of that money goes to survival needs, not discretionary spending, which is what defines middle-income status.”
The Minister’s assertion that the country is witnessing accelerated private and public investment is also under scrutiny.
Several flagship infrastructure projects, including dams, roads, and energy plants, have either stalled or faced chronic delays due to corruption, mismanagement, and lack of transparency.
Critics argue that the NDS1 has largely failed to address structural economic weaknesses, with foreign direct investment limited and informal trading dominating urban centres. Businesses continue to close due to high taxes, fuel shortages, and erratic utility supply.
“Zimbabwe’s economic policies under ZANU-PF have prioritized political optics over real development,” said Mr. Tendai Chikwenya, a Harare-based policy analyst.
“While ministers talk about GDP growth and investment, ordinary Zimbabweans are struggling to access healthcare, education, and even basic water and electricity services. The middle-income claim is nothing but an election ploy.”
The public health sector, in particular, illustrates the stark divide between official rhetoric and reality. Hospitals frequently operate without essential drugs, maternity wards lack adequate equipment, and nurses are striking over unpaid salaries.
Meanwhile, social services, including public transport and sanitation, continue to deteriorate across both urban and rural areas.
The government’s repeated attempts to paint a rosy picture contrast sharply with widespread poverty and rising inequality.
In urban areas like Bulawayo and Harare, informal settlements swell as formal housing becomes unaffordable, while in rural provinces such as Matabeleland North and South, farmers struggle with drought, collapsing irrigation systems, and limited access to markets.
Analysts warn that unless ZANU-PF addresses systemic corruption, restores functional industry, stabilizes healthcare and public services, and genuinely empowers the private sector, the so-called “middle-income” narrative will remain a fiction.
As Zimbabwe approaches another election cycle, the gap between official claims and lived realities is increasingly evident, leaving many citizens questioning whether government pronouncements on economic success are about policy or political survival.
– CAJ News