by EMEKA OKONKWO/TINTSWALO BALOYI/ADANE BIKILA/MARCUS MUSHONGA
Africa Bureau
JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – WHILE the post-election relations with Africa did not feature in the campaigns of either of the two presidential hopefuls, and that no African leader has openly endorsed the candidates, there is no doubt the African continent is focused on the United States elections this week.
Whether the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, or his Republican counterpart, ex-president Donald Trump, emerges the winner, the outcome of the November 5 poll will have an impact on Africa, because of the economic and political ties between America and the African continent.
Judging by the way the White House contentiously related to Africa during Trump’s sole term from 2017 to 2021, and recent years of the reign of current leader, Joe Biden, provides an outlook how the ties will fare, whoever between the pair wins arguably the world’s most eagerly-anticipated elections.
To provide background, no president of the US has embarked on a visit to Africa since Barack Obama in July 2015, when he travelled to Ethiopia, the headquarters of the 55-member states African Union (AU). The first was by Franklin Roosevelt in 1943 to current-day Gambia, Liberia and Senegal, in that order.
A trip initially planned to Angola, for October 2024, Biden postponed it, in what the White House said was to enable the leader to prioritise the response to the Hurricane Milton that left 35 people dead in his country and left extensive damage.
During the three-day visit, Biden was scheduled to meet his Angolan counterpart, President João Lourenço, to discuss increased collaboration on shared priorities and bolstering economic partnerships.
The White House said the now-postponed visit underscored the US, continued commitment to African partners, and demonstrates how collaborating to solve shared challenges in order to deliver for the people of the US and across the African continent.
The tour will now be in December, but then, analysts believe the impact would be the same as if it were conducted on its original date.
“It could be an inconsequential visit if Kamila Harris would have lost the election,” said local political commentator, Maico Borba.
“The postponement of the trip, although justifiable, would have offered Angola and Africa what lies ahead of the US-Africa relations if the administration retained power,” Borba said.
Harris is Biden’s deputy, and has been thrust into the race because of the current leader’s health issues.
Borba believes if Harris won against Trump, investments by America to Angola as well as partnerships would expand. This at a time Angola is one of countries in the continent at the centre of a fierce battle between US and China for influence in the southern African nation.
In Angola, there is the multibillion-dollar Lobito Corridor project, a major railway project connecting the country to the other mineral-endowed countries of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
It is hailed as Africa’s first trans-continental open-access rail network that will connect the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean.
The project represents the largest foreign investment in a rail project by the US, with funding estimated around $2 billion.
Such projects, according to analysts, would be uncertain under a Trump government, set to prioritise the “America First” approach.
With no official pronunciation on future relations, the visit to Africa in March-April 2023 by Harris offered a hint of what to expect in the future if the current administration retains office.
Her visit to Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia aimed to prop US investment to the continent and counteract the growing influence by the main economic foe, China, and political adversary, Russia.
Among other investments was $100 million to fight Islamist extremism in some West African countries.
Some $139 million was to be invested in bilateral assistance to Ghana as well as assisting the country restructure its debt.
In Zambia, Harris announced investments worth over $16 million.
Overall, for the continent, she pledged her government’s commitment to invest $7 billion to boost agriculture and tackle climate change in the continent.
“For continuity, it is vital that the current administration retains power,” reiterated Zambian analyst, Brian Jere.
He believes for Zambia, a Harris administration was crucial as Zambia was in recent years, under the new government of President Hakainde Hichilema had built solid relations with the US.
However, this has tangled diplomatic relations between Zambia and some countries in the Southern African region, which have gone to the extent of denouncing the country as a security threat after the US government in 2022 announced the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) would open an Office of Security Cooperation at the US Embassy in Zambia.
Another defining factor of the US-Africa relations is the tax-free African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been in place since 2000. It provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.
The programme is to expire in 2025. Biden has endorsed its renewal but its future is shrouded in uncertainty if Trump and his “America First” prevail.
The coalition government in South Africa is rooting for the renewal of AGOA.
It is Africa’s largest economy and there are 600 US businesses operating in the continent, although there have been diplomatic divisions with America over the two countries’ stances on foreign policy.
South Africa is seen as aligning itself with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine and publicly supporting Palestine in the conflict with Israel.
America is backing Ukraine and Israel respectively, and there have been fears because of such, the US would disqualify South Africa from the list of over 30 countries benefiting from AGOA. Countries deemed as human right violators and complicity to such do not qualify.
In July this year, South Africa participated in the 21st AGOA Forum in Washington.
“As the Department of Trade, Industry and Commerce (DTIC) family, we regard the AGOA Forum as a crucial engagement reinforcing the strong economic ties between South Africa and the US and our African continent,” Minister Parks Tau said.
The current administration believes the foreign policy of the Biden administration believes it is repairing US alliances, which it argues were damaged during the Trump administration.
Relations between Africa and America under Trumps were tetchy.
In 2018, Trump was quoted as denouncing African nations as “shithole nations.” He was putting across a point that they were exacerbating the US’ immigration crisis.
The African Union and the United Nations condemned the utterances, with AU expressing “infuriation, disappointment and outrage.”
The same year, Trump angered Nigerians for saying the West African country had “a massive reputation for corruption.”
Then, Nigeria, Africa’s largest nation by population, was the continent’s biggest economy.
South African-based political commentator, Sifiso Mkhize, said while the rivals might differ on relations with Africa, “Both still push the imperialist agenda.”
Thus, he insisted, neither a victory for Harris nor Trump would be beneficial to South Africa.
“At least Trump doesn’t start military wars but focuses on economic growth. The US economy was good under him and he dropped the unemployment rate sharply,” he argued.
Mkhize also mentioned the growing influence of the Brazil, Russia India, China and South Africa (BRICS) bloc on relations between Africa and the US.
“The whole African continent should join BRICS but Ghana and Ivory Coast, along with Kenya (among others), are aligned with the US,” he said.
Nigerian political scientist, Ifeanyi Chukwu, said whatever election outcomes, he argued the US’ foreign policy would never change.
“The US foreign policy is not good for Africa. If you notice current economic developments in the African continent, many countries are increasingly applying to join the BRICS nations because the US partnership always comes with conditions unlike the BRICS,” Chukwu said.
Ethiopian activist Amari Assefa says Africa is following the US elections with keen interest.
“The US election outcome would affect Africa in one way or another, but what worries me the most is their foreign policy,” Assefa stated.
Danai Manyeruke, a staunch supporter for the RULING Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF), said whoever won the US elections would never improve Africa’s status.
“America’s foreign policy is always bullying, intimidating and threatening any nation on earth, making their election of new presidents of no value to the African continent, precisely Zimbabwe,” Manyeruke said.
He said many African countries were slapped with sanctions by America for refusing to embrace lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex, queer/questioning, asexual (LGBTIQA+).
“On the other hand, if you look at America’s fiercest economic competitor, China, the Chinese simply do business with any African country without bullying, intimidating or threatening them like what the US does. Therefore, the US election this week will be just their occasion but as Africans, we already know that nothing good for Africa would come out of those elections. I would rather encourage African leaders to deepen relationships with China and the entire BRICS nations, who do not come with conditions when investing,” concluded Manyeruke.
– CAJ News