from OKORO CHINEDU in Lagos, Nigeria
LAGOS, (CAJ News) – THE adoption of a higher population base by the regulator in Nigeria has led to a lower broadband penetration in the West African country.
The Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC) has adopted 217 million as the country’s population, compared to 191 million it has used previously. It is the continent’s largest nation by population.
Subsequently, despite a 2,5 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in subscriptions to 94,2 million in March 2024, penetration fell by 468 basis points to 43,5 percent.
Broadband subscriptions have registered an average monthly increase of 0,3 million since January 2023, excluding a few months of brief moderation.
Additionally, total data usage increased by 34 percent y/y (8 percent month-on-month) to 753 388,8 terabytes (TB) in March 2024, implying an average subscriber data usage of around 4,7 gigabytes.
Mobile internet connections account for 99 percent of Nigeria’s broadband base.
“Consequently, we use the market shares of mobile network operators’ internet users as a proxy,” stated Tunde Abidoye, Equity Research Analyst at FBN Capital.
MTN Nigeria emerged the industry leader, with 69,3 million internet users at the end of the first quarter of 2024, equating to an estimated market share of 42,3 percent.
Airtel Nigeria and Globacom ranked second and third respectively with 46,8 million and 44,4 million internet users, accounting for shares of 28,6 percent and 27 percent.
9Mobile held the smallest share among the operators, with 2 percent of the market.
The current mobile broadband penetration rate of 43,5 percent indicates that there is still a significant gap to bridge before attaining the federal government’s target of 70 percent by 2025, FBN forecast.
“The mismatch between investment in the sector and desired outcomes is evident, as second-generation (2G) networks represent over 57 percent,” Abidoye said.
The West African nation’s 4G networks account for a 33 percent share, while 3G and 5G account for 9 percent and 1 percent respectively.
Research from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) indicates that a 10 percent rise in broadband penetration could lead to gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2 percent in low-income countries.
“To unlock broadband’s economic potential, Nigeria must address infrastructure gaps, invest in higher generation networks, and enhance fibre connectivity to drive sustainable growth,” Abidoye concluded.
– CAJ News