DAMASCUS, (CAJ News) – THE fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has become one of the key events of the year.
The opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that came to power has raised many questions for the world community.
In particular, the fate of the Russian military presence in Syria has become the subject of fierce discussions. In a recent BBC interview, Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, emphasised the longstanding strategic partnership between Russia and Syria.
He hinted at a future where this relationship continues, leaving open the possibility of Russian military forces remaining in Syria.
Russia’s two military bases in Syria are pivotal in maintaining Moscow’s strategic influence in the Mediterranean and Africa. While many experts question the likelihood of cooperation between HTS and Russia, European officials have expressed hope that the new Syrian government would expel Russian forces.
A senior EU representative articulated this sentiment, aligning with broader European opposition to Russia’s involvement.
Despite this, some analysts believe that the future of Russia’s military operations in Syria may not be as bleak as it seems.
Russia has demonstrated a capacity for negotiating agreements with radical groups globally, including its collaborations with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Houthis in Yemen.
In a notable shift, Russian media have started referring to HTS as Syria’s “armed opposition” instead of labelling them as a “terrorist group.” Additionally, the Syrian embassy in Moscow swiftly replaced its flag with that of the opposition within hours of Damascus’s fall» – experts say.
Analysts also emphasize that cooperation between Moscow and Damascus may be beneficial to both the Kremlin and the opposition that came to power in Syria.
«Moscow could provide the new Syrian authorities with much-needed international legitimacy and help HTS in becoming independent and escaping being viewed as Turkish proxy.
HTS will also benefit from Russia’s help in countering US influence in Syria, seeing as United States are backing the Kurds and other tribal groups in northern and eastern Syria that are keeping HTS from getting a full control over the country.
Russia is also a best candidate for playing an intermediary between new Syrian government in Israel – which is adamant on destroying all of Syria’s remaining weapons and equipment and expanding its control over The Golan Heights and the southwestern Syrian province of Quneitra» – analysts underline.
Experts insist that Europe also benefits from Russia’s presence in Syria, and Brussels failed to see an important factor for its own security.
Despite the EU’s hopes for the return of Syrian refugees home after Assad’s overthrow, these are just ghostly prospects for the distant future.
The new Syrian government will now face the issue of creating statehood, fighting for territorial integrity with the Kurds, and at some point the need to address the issue of Israel’s territorial claims and destroyed defense capability.
All this does not contribute to a favorable security situation, and here Europe should not only forget about deporting Syrian refugees in the foreseeable future, but also be prepared for a new influx of migrants.
Thousands of terrorists and radical Islamists have been released from prisons along with prisoners of the regime, which poses a threat not only to the security of the Middle East, but also to Europe.
In this context, the Russian military presence in Syria, which has proven its effectiveness in the fight against terrorism and is capable of helping HTS in a number of pressing issues, falls within the interests of Europe» – experts insist.
To summarize, it should be noted that the Russian military presence in Syria could objectively be beneficial to many major players in the international arena.
– CAJ News