by LUKE ZUNGA
JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – SYRIA has fallen. The government of King Bashar al-Assad of Syria was dethroned by a civilian uprising led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham(HTS).
In a dramatic turn on Friday and Saturday HTS took Aleppo and occupied the capital of Syria, Damascus, forcing President Bashir al-Assad to flee to Russia.
The palace was pillaged, furniture removed, statues dethroned down in rampart destruction of the state.
Bashar a-Assad is son of King Hafez Al-Assad who ruled Syria from 1972 until his death in 2000. An eye doctor and military commander, Bashir al Assad took the throne on 17 July 2000 from his father and continued until 8 August 2024, after 13 years of civil war, which saw over 500,000 people dead.
Syria is a historically important country. However, violent civil protests started in 2011, splitting the country into three main splinter groups, the main one being the semi-autonomous Kurdish in the North east, fighting for overthrow of the King President.
The fall of Damascus does not signal peace in Syria. There are foreign interests. The US and Israel do not want a strong Arab state around Israel, as seen by Israeli bombing of Syria during this transition, claiming to be destroying weapons of mass destruction, and stopping resupply of Hezbollah.
The US supported Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces against the Assad government. Turkey supported rebel forces of the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish YPG militia to counter the Kurdish rebel group, called KPP, by supplying arms and air defence to neutralize the KPP and ISIS.
Russia supported the Al-Assad government to counter US support for Syrian democratic forces, the largest group being YPG and HTS.
Iran supported the Al-Assad government as Syria supported Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. Syria is a confluence of power struggles.
Will this rebel leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, manage to control Syria? The future is still turbulent and a government acceptable to all groups is a long way.
The situation in Syria bears an interesting dichotomy to Africa. The first is that dictatorship will be defeated.
Countries in Africa, such as Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Mozambique and Uganda should take note that a smooth transitional change of government allows a political climate to correct itself.
As seen in Mozambique overstaying in power will lead to fractional conflict. Mozambique is under strain from self-inflicted desire to stay in power. Liberation parties want to rule forever, but until when?
Swaziland is ruled by the strong hand of King Mswati 111, the same scenario as Syria was.
There are countries with a King but allowing political space and democratic elections. Swaziland should look into that direction, instead of the highly contested Tinkhundla appointments.
The second is that removing leaders through revolution or force does not lead to peace.
Libya is a typical example, where a well-run state was bombed out by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and today the country is shattered after years of trying to unite the conflicting interests and rebel groups.
Somalia fell into this category where the removal of Said Barre led to a fractious state.
Iraq fractured after the removal of Saddam Hussein. To remove a leader by force does not guarantee the future.
I have not mentioned South Africa, which is trying something else, away from exclusive liberation forces.
Although forces within the political space in South Africa largely oppose the Government of National Unity (GNU), there is a chance for testing new ways of running a government.
Those opposing President Cyril Ramaphosa have not clearly articulated what they would do as a government or participating in a different coalition.
The real problem in Africa is that black people are left out. It is not a problem of the past colonial regimes anymore, but within African political and technocratic administration as explained in the book ‘What Economists Are Missing – Keeping you poorer’: https://books2read.com/u/b5KwoG.
– CAJ News