from EMEKA OKONKWO in Abuja, Nigeria
Nigeria Bureau
ABUJA, (CAJ News) – AFRICA is being urged to prepare for a potentially powerful El Niño that could bring punishing heat and drought to southern countries while triggering excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of the east.
The warning comes as the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a more than 90% chance of El Niño becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
Between October and December, NOAA estimates a 69% probability that the event could exceed the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950.
For Africa, the consequences are likely to vary sharply by region.
Southern Africa faces an increased risk of below-normal rainfall and extreme heat, while parts of East Africa could experience heavy rainfall, flooding and damaging storms.
Dr Henno Havenga, senior lecturer in climatology at North-West University’s School of Geo- and Spatial Sciences, cautions that “super El Niño” is not a formal scientific classification, but describes an exceptionally strong event.
El Niño occurs when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
“A very strong El Niño does not guarantee extreme conditions everywhere,” Havenga says. “Weather variability still plays a major role.”
The risks, however, extend well beyond weather.
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable, with drought threatening crops, livestock and rural livelihoods.
Heat can intensify losses by increasing evaporation and water demand precisely when supplies are falling.
For subsistence farmers, a failed harvest can mean losing both household food and the income generated by selling produce.
Water security is another major concern. Hot, dry conditions could reduce supplies in rivers, dams and boreholes while increasing demand.
Havenga says governments should urgently repair leaking water infrastructure and encourage conservation before shortages become critical.
The energy sector could also come under pressure. Countries dependent on hydropower may face falling electricity generation as reservoirs decline, while higher temperatures could increase demand for cooling.
East African communities face a different set of risks.
Flooding could damage roads and bridges, contaminate water supplies, destroy crops and displace households.
Havenga says governments should use the advance warning to prepare food-security programmes, strengthen disaster-response systems and support farmers with planting, water-use and production decisions.
“Drought is a slow-onset hazard,” he says.
“That slow progression can catch us off guard.”
With months of warning already available, African governments have an opportunity to act before a potentially severe climate shock becomes a humanitarian and economic crisis.
– CAJ News