by TINTSWALO BALOYI
JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – THE world has been grappling with speculation over the potential consequences of a hypothetical United States military intervention in Venezuela, a scenario that experts warn could destabilize global energy markets and provoke widespread condemnation from sovereign nations.
While such a scenario has not occurred, analysts emphasize that Venezuela’s strategic oil reserves and its growing ties with the BRICS nations make the country a focal point in global geopolitics.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has faced repeated U.S. sanctions, and many commentators argue that any direct intervention would test the resolve of countries in the Global South to defend national sovereignty.
African journalist Hopewell Chin’ono said in a recent commentary that the U.S’ unprovoked invasion to Venezuela is driven by strategic interests rather than democracy or narcotics concerns.
“A lot of people have not understood the truth behind Nicolás Maduro’s situation. It was never about drugs, and it was never about democracy,” Chin’ono argued. “Trump himself has said the U.S. is focused on oil. Look at how Juan Orlando Hernández, the former Honduran president, was pardoned despite his involvement in cocaine trafficking. That alone shows where U.S. priorities lie.”
Professor Jonathan Moyo added that any forced removal of a foreign head of state would constitute a dangerous precedent for international norms.
“The idea of abducting or toppling a leader of a sovereign country would shatter global norms and invite catastrophe,” Moyo said. “It could embolden other countries to justify similar actions, undermining the principles of sovereignty and international law.”
Global powers have repeatedly underscored the importance of respecting sovereignty. The Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Wu Peng, noted: “China strongly condemns any use of force against Venezuela. Such acts blatantly violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty. We urge adherence to the UN Charter and respect for other countries’ security.”
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a similar statement, describing the US military intervention as “a clear violation of the fundamental principles of the UN Charter and international law, fully qualifying as an act of aggression.”
The statement emphasized that the UN and its member states have a legal and moral responsibility to prevent such aggression and ensure accountability.
South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ronald Lamola, reinforced this view, warning: “History has repeatedly shown that military invasions against sovereign states yield only instability and deepening crises. Unlawful, unilateral force of this nature undermines international order and equality among nations. The UN Security Council must urgently address such scenarios.”
Experts also highlight that the significance of Venezuela extends far beyond its borders. Ibrahim Majed, an energy analyst, explained: “Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves represent the largest on Earth, surpassing Saudi Arabia and accounting for nearly 20% of the world’s oil. Any attempt to control this resource would be less about democracy or human rights and more about strategic dominance over energy and global trade.”
Majed noted that U.S invasion in Venezuelan oil is intertwined with the petrodollar system. “Venezuela had begun selling oil in Chinese yuan, euros, and rubles, bypassing the dollar. Joining BRICS and creating direct payment channels with China could accelerate de-dollarization. This is the real issue for Washington: the stability of the global financial system that underpins U.S. economic power.”
Historical examples reinforce this pattern. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein faced regime change after announcing plans to sell oil in euros instead of dollars.
Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown following his proposal for a gold-backed African currency. Analysts argue that Venezuela, with reserves surpassing both combined and partnerships with China, Russia, and Iran, represents a similar challenge to U.S. financial hegemony.
BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—have increasingly acted in concert to defend sovereignty, promote trade independence, and counter unilateral pressure from traditional powers.
Majed observed: “Russia now sells oil in rubles and yuan; China operates its CIPS system as an alternative to SWIFT; and Saudi Arabia is openly considering yuan settlements. BRICS is actively creating a multipolar financial system that diminishes the dollar’s dominance. Venezuela’s integration would accelerate this shift.”
Opposition voices within South Africa have voiced solidarity with Venezuela’s autonomy.
Julius Sello Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) South Africa stated simply: “We are with the people of Venezuela.” Analysts emphasize that such unity among Global South nations could deter coercive interventions and reinforce international norms protecting sovereignty.
If a hypothetical U.S. intervention were attempted, the global repercussions would be profound.
Majed explains that controlling Venezuelan oil would provide the U.S. with leverage over energy flows, reduce vulnerability to Middle East disruptions, and strengthen the petrodollar system—but at the cost of destabilizing the Global South and inviting retaliatory measures from nations invested in multipolar cooperation.
In this context, Venezuela’s potential integration into BRICS is a symbol of the Global South’s growing economic and political clout. By fostering trade cooperation, joint investment, and alternative financial infrastructure, BRICS countries are demonstrating that unity and collective action can shift the balance of global power and defend the sovereignty of nations in the face of external pressure.
The hypothetical scenario also highlights the moral and legal responsibilities of the international community. Global powers, regional alliances, and the UN are called upon to safeguard norms, deter unilateral military action, and uphold the principle that no nation should impose its will on another through force.
As Majed concluded, “This is not just about Venezuela. It is about the emergence of a multipolar world where the Global South asserts its right to self-determination. Any attempt to forcibly intervene would test whether international law and cooperative frameworks can withstand pressure from old hegemonies.”
The world is watching, and Venezuela’s strategic choices—and the reactions of BRICS nations—could define the next chapter of global geopolitics.
– CAJ News